JPY is bullish after publication of preliminary data on Prelim GDP which showed that in first quarter of this year growth rates makes up 0.8%.
In year calculus growth rates are higher than it was predicted and makes up 3,3% against previous value of 3,5% and forecast of 2,5%
The data show that for Japan the first quarter have passed not so successful, therefore increase of interest rates is less possible at present. Most likely the question about increase of interest rates will arise in the end of second quarter when the economy is able to recover from slowdown of demand of the US and Japan gets stronger inflationary pressure caused by rise in oil and food prices.
USD/JPY is bearish. The price could not break the resistance level formed by local maximums and technical turnout took place. It is expected that this level will be broken soon which is due to strengthening of USD.
In the case of turnout it is recommended to open long positions with target on 106.5. It is expected to be come up soon.

EUR|JPY

EUR/JPY broke resistance level formed by downside channel and went to the main resistance formed by strategic downside line. It is expected that the price will push off from upper range and set off to the area of 152.0. It is recommended to sell the pair from this mark as this level is sufficient resistance.
Against the background of high but slowing down inflation in euro zone and growing Japanese economy this pair is of interest for long-term investors.
It is expected that ECB will start cutting and the Bank of Japan will begin to increase interest rates almost simultaneously so that it will cause sufficient cutting of the pair. The price will fall to the area of 152.0 by in the end of the year, but this fall will be for 3 years.
It is recommended to open long-term positions if the price approaches to resistance level of 164.0 with target on 152.0

CAD

USD/CAD is bearish. The price is testing technical resistance level of 1.00. This level already restrained the price from fall, that’s why it is sufficient support. In case of break next support level will be in the area of 0.9925.
As there will be no important data on Canada economy this week, technical analyze forms the main component of movement.
It is expected that the price will be able to break this support level and fall to the area of next support level of 0.9925. In case of upward correction it is recommended to open short positions with mentioned target, but price turnout to 1.02 is possible near support level.

According to yesterday’s results, USD strengthened against EUR. EUR/USD fell to the area of previously broken resistance level, which is support level at present and pushed off from it.
Against background of inflationary data on the USA it is expected that the level of inflation will be in comfortable range. The data supported American currency which had been strengthening before their publication.
Before opening of Asian session EUR/USD was above support level of 1.5450 break of which will lead to update of historical minimums of the pair and rebound will cause growth to resistance level of 1.5615 making up 50% of downside movement.
It is recommended to keep sales opened, which was done with the target on 1.52.
This week attention will be paid to CPI ex food & energy which is the main indicator of inflation.
Against background of soaring prices on energy and products the basic indicator gives more information about the level of inflation in the USA.

GOLD

Against the background of USD strengthening, gold is bearish. Investors do not use gold for speculative trading and transfer additional funds to commodity market and because of it metal sector starts again to comply with law of demand and supply.
It is expected that against background of USD strengthening the price of gold will test support level of $833 per troy ounce and it is possible that it will break it.
According to 4 hour chart the price could not grow to resistance level of $900 per troy ounce which amounts 50% from downside trend and resumed to fall.
It is recommended to sell gold in mid-term prospects with expectation of the price fall to $833 per troy ounce.
$833 level is formed by closure of preceding year. As this level makes up 50% from price impulse it can be considered as strong support level.

USD

According to yesterday’s results, USD fell against EUR. The fall was so strong that the price could not overcome the resistance level of downward trend and break it.
The reason for it lies in technical factors. Against background of weakening bullish impulse many investors begot to fix profits so that it has led to fall of USD.
After breaking resistance level formed by line of downside trend the next point for EUR/USD is 1.57.
It is possible that the price can reach the mentioned point but it will be complicated to stay at reached level as it will be used for opening short positions on the pair. It is possible that after technical conformation of price turnout many banks will open long-term short positions with target on 1.46.
Statistics show that American economy is completing lowering caused by mortgage crisis. The slowdown of growth rate was not so sufficient as it was predicted before. The growth rate is expected to be higher than most of economists do.
This week all attention will be paid to CPI ex food & energy, which is the main indicator of inflation. Against backgrounds of soaring food and oil prices, the basic indicator gives us clearer view of inflation level in the USA.
It is recommended to open long positions from 1.5475 and short positions from 1.57 in the area of 1.54.

USD

USD resumed its strengthening at Asian session which is the end of impulse of downward movement. Further trend of USD movement is still not clear but rebound to 1.6 and test of 1.54 support level is possible. Next week will be decisive.
Today a range of statistical data on the US economy will be published. It is worth paying attention to Non-Farm Productivity which is expected not to fall sufficiently, and to NAR Pending Home Sales and Consumer Credit.
Construction sector has not stabilized yet but credit sector feels better and it is expected that it will recover soon and be stable.
EUR/USD is forming turn figure. If the price can not come through 1.54 it will form double summit which will indicate the resumption of USD fall. Otherwise, if 1.54 is broken we will see further strengthening of USD which is expected to be final.
Daily chart shows that the price could rise to 1.57 which is a half of downward trend but in this region it will be difficult to consolidate.
Week chart shows that serious correction has not matured.

GBP

GBP/USD broke 1.9660 support level and fell to 1.9550. The price had fallen before data on industrial production of the UK was published. According to data, Manufacturing Production makes up 0,3% and Industrial Production – 0.2%. The data are the least since February 2007.
After data publication the price approached to support level of downward trend, but at present it is not recommended to open position to buy the pair. It is worth waiting for signs of price turnout. It is recommended to sell the pair from resistance level of downward trend.
Having allowed inflation rise, Monetary authorities decided to support growth rates but in the future if inflation is not cut down it could lead to slowing down economic growth. Perhaps, BoE cut interest rate once again but in the sequel will refrain from any actions as soon as threat of inflation rise becomes clear.

 USD

USD is strengthening against other currencies. Probably, G7 announcement that weak dollar can hurt world economy, forced to review dealer’s point of view on USD quotations and stop speculative sell of USD.
As a result of EUR/USD correction the price has fell by 3,75% to 1.54 for 2 weeks. In the nearest future termination of downward trend and price return to the area of absolute maximums located near 1.60 are expected. However, USD stay in the area of maximums will be not long-duration.
Concerning American economy’s condition, it is worth mentioning some weakening of mortgage crisis. Fears about the fact that bank crisis can touch other sectors and bring country into recession, disappeared.
Today ISM Non-Mfg Index will be published today but probably it will not have great impact on market. It is expected that all currencies will be traded under technical factors.


GOLD

Gold is traded near its local minimums. However it is expected that against the background of USD weakening the price will make technical turnout. In this case, the first kea target will be $900 per troy ounce which will be tested in the nearest future.
It is recommended to buy gold if the price fell in the area of $850 per troy ounce with intermediate target in the area of 900$.
Among events which can be influence on metal quotation it is worth mentioning decision on interest rate and the following press conference in the EU and the UK.

AUD

AUD/USD is traded with increase. Investors are waiting for tomorrow’s decision on interest rate. It is expected that interest rate will be on the current level of 7,25%. Decision on interest rate apart, tomorrow Trade Balance will be published and as it is expected TB will resume to decrease and make up 2.9 billion against 3.3 billion last month.
Today’s data showed medium growth of price on housing but it did not have any impact on market as it is not key indicator.
It is recommended to buy AUD/USD from 0.93 to 0.95.

USD
According to the results of 29.04 USD has strengthened against EUR, but uncertainty related to further movement resumes. The market does not know where USD will move to.
On the one hand, inability of EUR/USD to break 1.6 level of resistance has led to downfall of quotations. On the other hand, today’s decision on interest rates in the USA will be negative for USD. Almost all analysts point out interest rate’s lowering from 2.25% to 2%. In this case it is recommended to abstain from opening any positions before decisions on interest rates are announced. It is recommended to open long positions with intermediate target on 1.58 and end target on 1.6. If the Fed keeps interest rate on current level, we will see further USD strengthening which will lead EUR/USD to 1.54 level.

JPY

USD/JPY is traded in sideward direction. Decision of the Bank of Japan to keep interest rate on current level has not had an impact on the market. It is expected that against the background of USD lowering caused by interest rate cuts the pair will make correction in the area of 100 JPY per USD from which it is recommended to consider the pair on buy.
In short term perspective it is recommended to sell the pair after the decision on interest rate of the Fed is announced today’s evening.
Among statistics on Japanese economy it is worth noticing lowering of construction sector which was overseen by all indicators.

GOLD

Gold has lowered against the background of USD strengthening, but today speculative growth of gold quotations is possible if USD lowering happens. Growth of gold value to $915 per troy ounce is expected.
However, in the long term perspective speculative component will little by little lower its impact and price forming will be by supply and demand which causes negative effect on gold value.

USD

USD is being trading in sideward direction due to uncertainty of further price movement. In the nearest after downfall future technical correction is expected but it is not clear yet in what direction the price will move. On the one hand, recession in the US has not finished yet, but on the other hand G7 statements about possible hurting European economies by fragile USD as well as inability of EUR/USD to break 1.6 resistance level indicate investors’ uncertainty in further decline in USD.
In the nearest future the market is waiting for decision on interest rate which will be announced on Wednesday’s evening. It is expected that interest rates will be lowered from 2.25% to 2%. If this happens sell of USD is possible which will lead EUR/USD to recently achieved maximums.
Yesterday it was announced that inflation in 2008 will be 3,2% and it is supported by the fact that oil and food prices are soaring up. These factors will affect GDP growth rates which will fall to 1,7% this year and 1,5% next year. In general, data on the EU is more fragile – inflation will reach 3,6% this year and economic growth will not exceed 1,2%.
It is recommended to open long positions on EUR/USD from current points with intermediate target on 1.58 (50% from downward direction) and then on 1.6.

GBP

GBP is traded in expectations of statistics issue related to credit sector. Expectations of economists go to the fact that credit sector will resume to shrink. At present moment GBP/USD is in the middle of trade range and it is not recommended to buy or sell it till it reaches some side. Considering pair on selling is recommended in the case of reaching range of 2.0020-80 and open long positions from 1.9575-1.96. Intermediate level will be 1.9860.